It’s early on a Friday morning…ok at least by your friendly neighborhood weatherguy’s standards.  There’s some fog in the creek valley, but the sky overhead is clear.  We’re looking at a good Friday.  The sun will help make it fell milder than the upper 5o’s the thermometer will say.  As we get to the latter part of November and beyond, cherish and enjoy the sunny days.

Saturday is still looking like the better of the two weekend days.  Sunshine will be giving way to some afternoon clouds as a system (a winter preview perhaps?) swings out of the Gulf and heads northeast.  If this is a winter preview and we see things coming up out of the Gulf through this winter season, perhaps we’ll finally get ‘the big one’ that many folks seem to want (although careful what you wish for…) and more on that in a sec.

The low will be on a track south of us, so the more south and east you are (say London or Hazard) the better your rain chances Sunday compared to Lexington.  Regardless we should see more clouds and a few degrees cooler on Sunday.  Also, most  of your Thanksgiving week is looking better for travelling.  There will be rain (and snow) from a northern system, but it’s not looking like a big deal at this point.  Fairly chilly air will follow it though for the holiday, so it will start feeling more like the season.

Which brings us back to the hint given above.  There’s not going to be any cool air around for this weekend’s storm to play around with, so obviously it’s all rain.  But, if you saw our world famous webcast yesterday (also available at www.facebook.com/billsweather  if you’re a member of facebook) was showing you the ‘model fantasyland’ for the first week of December when there looks to be A LOT of cold air running around.  Simply remember back to the pattern we’ve been in since July, 2 to 3 weeks of cold (with some Arctic discharges) followed by 1 to 2 weeks of relative warmth.  Well our warm clock is about out and we’ve talked here and on Kruser’s show on VLK about winter coming fast and hard.  We start bringing lows out of the Gulf with cold air in place and life can get awfully interesting…and for the love of Pete please be snow and not ice when the time comes!  So this weekend’s low is a practice run, running the patterns but no tackling yet.

Last night I was helping out the folks at the Perryville Battlefield Park reconstruct the weather around the time of that crucial Civil War battle.  What was incredible was how quickly and dramatically the weather turned then.  They were coming through a summer drought that lasted into September…certainly not something unusual for around here.  It rained from late September into October as the pattern was flipping (sound familiar?) and it snowed (and it snowed A LOT) in late October.  In fact it would be record breaking snow, execept this was before our reliable climatic record begins.  There were 3″ of snow on the ground around Oct. 24th.  This beats the Lexington’s records which go back to 1888 easily.  Louisville has had a few more early snows than Lex, but that 3″ would also beat their records which go back to the 1870’s.

Of course you’re sitting there reading and thinking, “why yes this absolutely proves global warming since we don’t get October snow like that now…” .  There is not one single person that will deny we’ve warmed since the late 1800’s.  The 1860’s were at the end of the climatic period known as the Little Ice Age, so it WAS colder.  The October snow may have been a fairly common occurrence then.  What we strongly disagree with is the mechanism of change.  Natural climate cycles were going on well before people were around or could have even dreamed of having any effect.  When you begin your records when the temperature is near it’s coldest point over the last several hundred years, you know what you are going to see a warm up because it HAS to.  When you’re at the bottom of a cycle which way do you go?

Our last warm cycle peaked 10 years ago and we’ve been steady and cooling since.  Here’s an article from Der Spiegel…a German publication.  The sun is at historic lows, and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue as happened in the Maunder Minimum and others…cycles… btw when you read that article look at who is attending the meeting in Copenhagen, politicians, bureaucrats, environmental activists, business leaders and oh yeah scientists.  However I don’t think such notable climate and meteorological scientists such as Joe D’Aleo, Bill Gray or Richard Lindzen, or Lord Christopher Monckton have been invited.  Check out icecap to learn what these gentlemen, and others, have to say about our climate.

So with that, we’ll finish this up on a Friday morning.  Enjoy the day and your weeknd…and Go Cats…Bill wants to go to a warm bowl this year!

We’re still looking at gradually improving weather heading into the weekend.  The closed low we’ve been stuck under this week is slowly lifting out and filling (weakening).  Clouds will linger for most of Thursday, but Friday is looking better and at this point the weekend is looking pretty decent.

If you pulled a Rip Van Winkle and slept through Tuesday, don’t worry you’ll get a chance to see the weather you missed.  A big slow moving low continues to spin over Missouri lifting clouds and occasional light rain up our way.  There will be a slight difference Wednesday…it’s going to be just a bit cooler (nothing dramatic).  We’re looking at weather closer to normal (both on the warm and cold sides) for the coming week or so as the atmosphere settles down after the extremes of the last several weeks.  This is likely just a quick breather as there continue to be model rumblings for the latter part of  Thanksgiving week.  We’ll deal with that more later this week.

Yes, I saw the ‘Copenhagen Conference’ story that snuck onto our frontpage.  I was thiiiiiisssss close to deleting it but decided censorship is not the way…we always prefer to let the facts speak for themselves.  For those keeping score there’s more polar ice now than at any time in the satellite era (southern hemisphere is way above normal)…temperatures have been falling for most of the last decade and most ‘forecasts’ (for what they’re worth)  are now talking about a few decades of cooling (sounds like a cycle doesn’t it?).  There has been  no significant measured sea level rise and overall tropical cyclone energy remains near historic lows.  Finally the sun remains in the depths of a historical sunspot minimum.  And just as a gentle reminder Lexington’s hottest decade was the 1930’s.

OK…so let’s just take a breath, and make the best of your Wednesday.  Bill’s Weather 101 is off to Madison County again at Kirksville and Kingston.  The visit to Kirksville will be the 3rd school that we’ve visited this month that has had a tornado pass nearby within the last 3 years…and 2 of them have been within the last year, Eubank and Kirksville.

Enjoy the day!

Bill’s Bits (otherwise known as not feeling like writing a long drawn out dissertation)

-Welcome to Kentucky John Wall!  (and the rest of the new guys as well…it should be fun)

-Mile for mile there are few more picturesque roads in Kentucky than KY 70.  I’ve driven it twice in the last 2 weeks…last week from Eubank to Brodhead and today from Liberty (actually Clementsville since google maps took me the wrong way to get to my school this morning) to Brodhead.  The drive through the Green River valley (west of Liberty) and riding through the knobs is fascinating.

-It’s difficult to image a more perfect November weekend than what we just enjoyed.  Our highs were 15 above normal so near 70 is about the best you can hope for this late in November.  Unfortunately the atmosphere can’t maintain that for any long stretch so we come back to reality this week.  It’s not going to be ‘cold’, just normal.

-Getting the feeling that winter is going to come on hard and fast over the next couple of weeks.  Some of the really long range stuff, which granted is model ‘fantasy land’ (and not the good kind) has been hinting at this.  There’s a lot of cold air running around on the other side of the hemisphere into northern Canada just looking for a reason.  We’ve seen these 1 to 2 week lulls in between shots from the Arctic which started back in July (even Arctic from July gets pretty warm by the time it gets here)  The cold has been beating the warm by about 2 to 1 in the number of days with this pattern, so we’ll see if this current 10 day long stretch has much more staying power.

-If you wonder why we call even 2 weeks out model fantasy land, then how far fetched is the idea of modelling an essentially infinite fluid with a multitude of variables 10, 20 or 100 years out and calling the results ‘fact’ a good idea?

-The big closed low in the Mississippi Valley will keep us with clouds and some rain into at least part of Thursday.  There’s nothing to push it out, so it will essentially spin itself out as it slowly lifts north.  Eastern Kentucky may not get much rain from this at all.  The storms backside has been cold enough for some snow Monday.  As the low spins itself out the cold will die out along with it. 

-Wow, thought I was being lazy writing in this style…already over 400 words.

-Cats win BOTH of their two remaining games as they let Morgan be more of a quarterback.  He’s showing flashes of really being good when he gets to ‘air it out’ a bit.

-Finally, the Mecklette had 6 goals over the weekend in indoor soccer…guess she didn’t lose any of her field skills goal keeping all fall, which makes dad happy and proud.

With that…enjoy your Tuesday!

Great weekend…nuff said.

Enjoy it  because you don’t know how many more of these we’ll get before spring.

We’ve entered another wonderfully benign weather pattern.  We’ll see a lot of sun and increasingly warm temperatures going into the weekend when our highs will get well into the 60’s.

While we’re enjoying this folks along the mid Atlantic coast from the Carolinas up to New Jersey are getting battered by the remnants of Ida.  A prolonged period of wind from 40 to 60 mph will be pummelling them into Thursday night or early Friday.  Here’s the link to the Chesapeake Bay Lighthouse off of Virginia Beach where the winds have been sustained up around 50 mph. 

We’re going to have a big announcement on a new product next week that will be a revolution in severe weather preparation.  That’s it for now…just a little teaser and we’ll talk more about it as we get closer to the unveiling.

BTW if you’re on facebook, you can follow us there too at facebook.com/billsweather.  We do put our webcast on there so there’s some added benefit above our little blog here.

Enjoy your Thursday

First…to all our currently serving and those who have served in our armed forces a deep and sincere thank you.  Your work and sacrafice have allowed us to live in the greatest place the world has ever known.

The Veteran’s Day weather will be improving as it goes on.  The remnants of Ida which brought rain to southeast Kentucky Tuesday will continue to slowly move east.  This will take the bulk of the clouds along with it so an increasing amount of sunshine looks good for us.

After another ‘normal’ day on Thursday with highs in the 50’s we’ll be setting the stage for another nice warm up this weekend…can I get a ‘yay’ on that one!

Bill’s Weather 101 is off to Richmond at Glenn Marshall Elementary and their 4th graders. 

Enjoy your Wednesday and don’t forget to thank a Veteran today.

Ida comes in as a tropical storm bringing heavy rain and winds between 50 and 70 mph to the Gulf Coast.  Ida will make a pretty sharp right turn keeping us away from the main rain.  Southern Kentucky will be close to the rain but this is looking like a big rain event for the Deep South.  Ida’s blow off clouds will continue streaming overhead through most of Tuesday.  Please keep in mind that hurricane season runs until November 30 for a reason.  If anyone suggests a larger political agenda with this first whap them upside the head and second point out the fact that the heart of hurricane season had nada.

A cold front is poised to drop southward once Ida clears the field.  The air behind that front is greatly modified, so our temps only drop to normal with the coolest push this week and begin heading back above normal as we approach the weekend.   After the small shower chance Tuesday with Ida and the front, the rest of the week looks dry.

Monday’s Bill’s Weather 101 had an interesting connection.  Both of the small communities, McKinney in Lincoln County and Eubank in Pulaski County have had tornadoes pass very near the schools within the last few years…Eubank was last year and it literally was across the street.  Obviously we talked at length with the kids about tornado safety and highlighted DUCK again.  BTW, you can see the kids of Bill’s Weather 101 by clicking on the ‘weather’ tab at the top of the homepage and click on the Bill’s Weather 101 schedule and videos.  The kid-vids will be up through the school year.

Enjoy your Tuesday.

We’ve joked about how many Fridays have seen rain around here.  Well for humor to be funny there must be kernel of truth to it and the truth is almost stranger than fiction.

After doing some digging we found out that our last dry Friday was all the way back on August 14th.   I couldn’t believe it either and checked it 3 times.  We’ve gone 3 months of Fridays with some degree of rainfall.  To be totally fair 2 of those in early September were just trace amounts and even if you took those as not technically ‘measureable’ the string would be amazing.  But August 14th…I’m still shaking my head over that.  Weather is truly amazing. 

Now combine that with the fewest 70 degree Octobers and the lowest high temperature for the month of July this has been a year for the obscure and incredible!

Our weekend continues to look great…a bit breezy…but warm.

Enjoy the ‘honey do’ weekend.

OK…looking for something fun to do this morning.  Go sit by your favorite bank clock (or your home thermometer will do as well) and watch the temperature leap up this morning.  Considering we’re going to go up about 30 degrees from this morning’s frosty start and, most of that will occur before noon, you are looking at some good old fashioned cheap entertainment. 

And now you know just how exciting the life of your friendly neighborhood weatherguy is…

We’re still on track for a nearly perfect November weekend. 

Enjoy your Friday and the aforementioned weekend and Go Cats (although good luck to the Colonels too!)