August 32…8:15 am
No I didn’t suddenly become stupid (although my now teenage Mecklette sometimes seems to think so…if you’re a parent of a teen you know exactly what I mean :-) …and some may argue ‘what do you mean ’become’?…but I digress. I know the date is not right…but even though we changed the calendar and the meteorological season (by the way welcome to ‘Meteorological Fall’) our weather hasn’t changed yet…so we’re extending August by a few days.
Rest assured, September weather is coming (and more like mid to late September at that when it does). With a big trough building in from the north we’ll see a very nice cool down for your Labor Day holiday weekend. The weather is looking spectacular with highs for a day or 2 in the 70’s…lows in the 50’s. It may be a bit cool for some late summer things like the last dip in the pool or tubing on the lake, but for everything else it looks perfect.
That big trough will also help steer Earl. Sometimes it’s the subtle little things that make a difference in life. We know there will be a trough centered on us and consequently a nice southwest to northeast upper flow along the east coast. The trough will to an extent help block Earl from coming too far west, but the shape of the trough will also determine the angle of recurve. What we’re not completely sure of is the shape of the trough. If it comes in and it’s a bit more shallow…say a 45 degree angle (picture a line running from bottom left to top right) then the recurve ends up being a bit sharper, Earl turns more northeast and it’s a glancing blow on the Outer Banks and Cape Cod. But, say the trough come in stronger and sharper the flow lines become more vertical which brings Earl in closer so that a hit not only on the Outer Banks is possible, but a run all the way up along the coast to New England with direct hits on both and damage in between.
The big picture differences are subtle, but the real world implications are vast. At this point we’re leaning more toward the latter than the former. We’ve talked all along about how most of the modelling and also NHC were trying to turn Earl (recurve) too early and too far east…originally this was supposed to come up east of Bermuda…but the trend is more and more west. Of course that trend has to stop eventually, but now it’s far enough west where we do have to bring in the thoughts of bad things from Earl…and not just a fish storm.
If you’re heading to Myrtle Beach…you should be fine with the storm passing by Thursday night to the east. There may be a few squalls into early Friday and some rough waves, but beyond that Mytrle looks ok. At least part of eastern North Carolina should experience hurricane conditions with a direct hit still at least possible around Hatteras. The big concern is that Earl pulls a Bob and plows into New England. At this point a path into Rhode Island or eastern Massachusettes looks like a decent bet. Here’s last night’s Euro run showing the center near Cape Cod.
Side note…notice there is no Fiona on this. At least for now Earl has become so big that it has poisoned the environment around it for the time being.
What’s also going to be interesting is now that we have WeatherBug we have access to a series of cameras and stations all along the East Coast that nobody else does…so as long as the electronics work we may be able to get you some unique info.
Enjoy the last of this current heat…rain chances before the weekend…and then what looks to be a great Labor Day.
Posted: September 1st, 2010 under Bill's Blog.





