Well we’ve survived Groundhog’s Day…yippee!  Of course this means that Saturday is your last shopping day before Weatherman’s Day.  BTW, thanks to Blue Belle Ice Cream for dropping off some celebratory ice cream in honor of the event…the cherry cheesecake is fantastic!  Also, don’t forget to enjoy the Weatherman’s Day Bowl on Sunday between the Patriots and Giants.  Hopefully within the 34 hours of continuous coverage on NBC they’ll show the ceremonial March of the Meteorologists during the pregame…it’s deeply moving and their may not be a dry eye in the place afterward. 

Are you getting the impression that your friendly neighborhood weatherguy is getting really bored with this pattern?  In a huge shock, it’s going to rain this weekend.  It will be yet another good steady soaking rain with temperatures only about 15 degrees too warm for snow.  We continue on pace for the record snowless year as we sit at 1.1″  for the season.  The record is 2.1″ from the winter of 1931-32…#10 is 4.1″ from 1998-99, so that’s the range we’re aiming for.

Saturday marks the 14th anniversary of 17″ of a dusting.  February 4-5, 1998 commemorates one of the great winter events in our part of the world and to this day is the reason why my boss doesn’t like us to say dusting…point of note, it was the year before we arrived in the Bluegrass, so I can’t be blamed for that one.  Also, that was essentially a warm and snowless winter until that event as most of the country was suffering a similar fate to this year with the lack of widespread snow.  It changed locally in dramatic fashion with that event…and of course history can always repeat itself…not a prediction, just saying it can.

Which leads to this…from our ‘Fun Facts to Know and Tell’ department.  Today, February 3rd, is the anniversary of North America’s coldest offiical temperature, -81 from one of the great place names of all time, Snag, Yukon.  This occurred in 1947.  Now when this piece of trivia came up, 1947 struck a chord.  History…and weather patterns…repeat themselves.  Earlier this week we were talking about the amazing cold in Alaska…offiically -66 at Ft. Yukon and UNOFFICIALLY to -79.  This is occurring while we’re having one of our warmest December-Januarys on record (tied for 5th).  It just so happens that this year in Lexington is tied for 5th with…wait for it…1947!!!!  Historic cold across the Arctic and near record warmth here.  History, weather patterns, weather cycles and balance…it’s a beautiful thing…Weather cycles…weather patterns…they do keep repeating if you look at a long enough history.

Europe is in the throes of some record cold.  It snowed in Rome for the first time in a quarter century.  There is no doubt there is a massive amount of extreme cold in the northern hemisphere, just not in our part of it yet.  Over the last several weeks our computer modelling at the days 7-10 time frame keeps showing massive invasions of cold air.  Then as we approach those forecasted dates it vanishes and we continue with the warm pattern.  It’s gotten to the cry wolf point forecasting wise…there is a an Arctic attack showing up toward the end of next week…AGAIN…eventualy one of these ghosts will actually be legit…until then, we’ll maintain persistence and just say that there is an extreme lack of confidence in any forecast beyond day 4 or 5 right now…I guess when we see it actually stick on the modelling into days 2 and 3 is when we’ll sound the Arctic Attack Alarm…but right now it’s status quo.

So with that…look for those last minute Weatherman’s Day sales…

And enjoy your weekend!

After today’s high of 62, that moves this January and February into a virtual tie for 5th place on the list of warmest Dec-Jan average high temperatures (few hundredths of a degree difference) .

 This is all pretty amazing stuff…and also amazing when you think that Alaska is having one of their coldest winters ever. So does that cold ever make it here to finish the winter?

Nature has a wonderful habit of balancing things out. We’ve shown you the list of warmest starts to ‘meteorological winter’ and this season ranks in a virtual tie for 5th.

However what happens in the final month of ‘winter’? Amazingly 11 of the 13 we looked at had a February with a temperature colder than the average. 9 of those 11 were the coldest month of the season.

Over 1/2 of the Februarys had at least 1 inch of snow and 6 had more than 2″.

The Februarys in 2007  (mistake in the graphic its’ supposed to be Feb 2007) and especially 1947 had AMAZING reversals. Not only was there 11″ of snow in Feb 1947, March ’47 had a foot to go with it! Now we’ll see how much of a balance Nature will bring this February!

This is by no means a prediction for THIS February…because you know what I think of long range forecasts.  However, when you look at HISTORY and can see that there are strong correlations its reasonable to suspect that similar things can happen again.  Are we going to see a grand reversal like 1947 or 200?  Probably not as these are the extreme events.  However, is it reasonable to think that given the past…that nearly all Februarys following incredibly warm December-Januarys have come out as the coldest and snowiest months of the winter season, then it’s not a big leap to think that this February would do the same…BALANCE!!!!

And to that end…the barbaric cold that has been Alaska may be shifting east some…more toward Hudson’s Bay next week.  The Euro model is trying to drive some of that cold our way in a week.

A few things to keep in mind…the models have been trying to do this in the 7 to 10 day time frame off/on for a few weeks, and each time it really hasn’t materialized.  Second, when you look at the Euro beyond day 7 (sorry don’t have a temp map for it…) it more or less rolls the cold back under itself.  It tries to wrap it up more toward New England so it ends up being just another glancing blow. 

The bottomline is that beyond about 5 days right now there just isn’t a really high c0nfidence level in any forecast…and through the next 5 we’ll be staying pretty mild.    We’ve got days 6-7-8 on the graphics, but don’t be surprised if they change quite a bit as we approach the actual days.  Hopefully you prefer honesty over bravado.

And with that enjoy the mild rain we’ll have to begin February…and watch out groundhogs!

There is no doubt at all we’re experiencing an incredibly warm first 2 months of ‘meteorological winter’. It’s been incredibly warm, but certainly not unprecedented not only in recent weather records, but also going back to the 1940′s and especially the 1930′s for great historical perspective.   This graphic is looking at the average high temperatures for December and January.  This works with taking December of ‘x’ year and combining it with January ‘x+1′.  For instance, we’re in December 11 and January 12.

What is exceedingly interesting when looking at these high temperature averages is how they are clustered. Not only are numbers 2 and 4 in the 1930′s, but the winters of 32-33 and 33-34 are in the top 12. That was 3 consecutive warm starts to the ‘winter’ season.

Numbers 1 and 6 are on this list from the late 40′s…number 10 is 1948-49.

After Tuesday, we’ll probably be tied for #7 on the list!  This goes with the clusterings from the 2000′s. 

Now here’s yet another fun fact to know and tell…in the 13 years that made the list (9 made the graphic), 10 of those years..10 of them…February ended being the coldest month of the winter…and in a few of these SIGNIFICANTLY colder.  Winter lovers take heart, some of the cold air may still make a run at us if history is any indicator.

It won’t change the overall character of the winter which has been very warm…but a couple of weeks of cold may give us a reminder of what winter is supposed to be.

By the way on the cold side…it’s been brutal in Europe…a friend of mine is in Bulgaria where it’s down to -15F in Sophia.  It’s brutal…REALLY brutal in Alaska…it’s one of the coldest Januarys on record in Fairbanks and other places.  An official reporting sight at Ft. Yukon dropped to -66 over the weekend.  An UNOFFICIAL reporting sight dropped to 79 BELOW ZERO.

Over the coming days, no cold.  We’ll be warm on Tuesday going into the 60′s which is warm, but still about 10 away from the record.

There’s cold showing up next week, but how much is still up for a lot of question.  The models keep hinting in the 7 to 10 day frame of cold shots, but they keep being pushed down the road.  What was looking ‘interesting’ for Sunday is now looking like the middle of next week…any forecast beyond day 5 right now is very low confidence.

Through Day 5 though, it’s still pretty mild.

Enjoy the warmth of Tuesday.

Just a quick Sunday tidbit…it’s still a week out, but there are some ‘interesting’ looks to next weekend.  Just glancing over the Euro model this morning and it’s been pretty consistent with a good cold shot and some other mischief running around.  Again…it’s a week out and it is Sunday today so this is just a quick note to stay tuned this week.   Just a reminder…the winter of 1997-98 was warm and snowless until the 17″ of a dusting in February…and no I”m not saying that will happen again, it’s just a reminder of all it takes is one…it’s also important to remember the modelling has had cold shots in the 7 to 10 day time frame that haven’t materialized so far this year…but at least it’s something to talk about…now go back to your Sunday..and one without football (pro bowl doesn’t count).

Somewhere along the way we’ve changed a paradigm.  When you look at some of our meteorological parameters (what we actually do back here to forecast which makes the finshed product you’re used to seeing) it has been screaming that a shot of at least polar if not some modifed Arctic air was poised to come in for a quick hit this weekend.    We look at something called the 1000-500mb thickness as a measure of temperature in the atmosphere.  As a guideline, 540 is usually the rain/snow line.  We actually go into the low 530s Saturday with the possibility of precip, but it’s going to be nearly all rain.  You could expect that in March, but usually not in the heart of ‘winter’.  On Sunday what should be Arctic (or at least something close to it) air with thicknesses down to almost 522 dm here…

This is for Sunday morning.  We’ve been forecasting cold based on these parameters.  Now, let’s look at where this air is coming from…actual data…

The numbers may be hard to read, but it’s an even freezing on the north shore of Lake Superior…in the mid 20′s all the way to the central parts of Manitoa and Saskatchewan with the only truly cold air in the northern parts of those provinces and the brutal air is sitting in the Northwest Territory. 

So we’ve got a cold front orginating where the air in Canada is in the 20′s and that will modify greatly by the time it gets here.

And next week…here we go again with another big warm up which will take us to the beginning of February and the final month of meteorological winter.  Could there be a big finish?  Sure it’s a possibility, but not a good one.  Remember what the character of the entire winter has been…ridiculously warm and wet.  Even if there is a week or 2 where it actually gets cold and heaven forbid it actually snows doesn’t take away from the ludicrous proclamations at the beginning of the season proclaiming ‘The Worst Winter Ever…” 

One other bit of internal business.  On this date 13 years ago your friendly neighborhood weatherguy arrived in the Bluegrass and fell in love (of course you circled the date on your calendar back in 1999!).  Without your support my family and I would not have been able to call this wonderful place home for so long, so for that…a truly heartfelt   THANK YOU.

So with that, enjoy your weekend.

We just checked again with spacewether.com and it appears the magnetic storm may be declining. The latest planetary K index (see earlier post) has dropped back to 3 indicating that northern lights are now increasingly UNLIKELY this far south. You can track the progress on spaceweather.

The Earth is the midst of the strongest magnetic storm since 2003 caused by a strong solar flare that sent a coronal mass ejection away from the sun and toward Earth.  Basically the sun burped a mass of charged particles that are now intersecting with our magnetic field which then causes it to glow similar to a neon light.  Something called the planetary K index is now at 5 which means the northern lights may be as far south as Michgan  http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/kp.html   If the storm intensifies any more, we may…MAY…be able to see them later tonight.

Well what’s another weekend of winter thunderstorms…

From our ‘Fun Facts to Know and Tell’ department…

Since the beginning of meteorological winter we’ve only had 3 days with accumulating snowfall leading to our whopping 1.1″ so far…still on a record pace if you’re keeping score at home.

In contrast, with this morning’s storms that makes 4 days with thunder being heard.  An amazing contrast, but something that really tells the story of this winter to date.

There are some signs that at least something resembling more traditional winter may be in the future.  First off, the national snow cover has increased pretty dramatically in the last couple of weeks.

We’re seeing over 40% of the country with snowcover now and we’re only 5% off of last year at this point.

So what does that mean…well first off the winter is trying to catch up, even if we haven’t seen it.  It will also allow more of a clear path for cold air masses to move down unmodified from the north.  There has been plenty of cold…in fact extreme amounts of it across the nothern part of the continent…but every time a piece has broken off, the previous lack of snow cover allowed the airmasses to modify greatly. 

Also, the cold has been transitory…it hits for a day or 2 then leaves.  We’ve got one of those coming up again this weekend.  Even looking out to about 10 days…which as always is model fantasyland…there just doesn’t seem to be a look of cold that can hold…which does get us into February…otherwise known as the 2/3 point of met.win.

So before that…we have another significant rainmaker coming in Wednesday PM into Friday…and it’s all rain.  We have at least a chance of some winter fun and games this weekend…but that’s also looking iffy…and we’ll talk more about those possibilities as we get closer.

So with all that…just remember that 49 years ago Tuesday morning it was 21 BELOW zero.

And enjoy your Tuesday.

Hard to believe 18 years ago this morning it was 37 BELOW zero in Shelbyville.  It was part an historic dump of Arctic air that set several state records (including Kentucky’s).  This year we’re just normal…highs in the low 40′s and lows in the 20′s.

We’ve got a front coming through tonight which will be putting the brakes on somewhere around Lake Cumberland waiting for a wave to scoot up it.  That wave will bring some rain late Friday-Friday night and into Saturday.  For us, it looks like it will be all rain.  Not far away there could be some winter mischief, but that will be on the other side of the Ohio as colder air will be holding on…this looks to be just above Cincy and Louisville tomorrow night.

This all clears out Saturday setting the stage for a big low coming out of the Plains Sunday into Monday.  It will launch some really warm air up this way with a good south wind Sunday with highs into the 50′s.  Unfortunately thunderstorms may be part of this equation Sunday night and Monday depending on the exact speed of the system.  What may also be part is a small chance for a quick changeover to snow as the system departs late Monday.  This will also depend on some timing which is just too far off to pinpont. 

The cold shot with this system will also be very quick…likely less than 24 hours as most of next week looks mild. 

Just a heads up…in model fantasyland…days 11-15…which is the beginning of February…real winter cold is looking to make its presence felt around here.  Just keep in mind where this is again, model fantasyland (and not the good kind) before we get too excited.

So with that…enjoy your Friday and your weekend.

A pretty good meteorological rule of thumb is when you go 20 degrees above normal that there’s a good chance it will end loudly…today certainly did.

Here’s the map of storm damage from today.  It’s all wind related, no hail reports.  The red is tornado (more on that in a minute), the blue are wind damage reports…trees down, property damage etc…the yellow would be measured wind speeds…the one near Winchester was 60 mph from the Kentucky Mesonet site in northern Clark  County.

Even with the pretty solid line of storms (and the overly done solid line of warnings) it was essentially 2 cells within that line that did the job of producing severe weather. 

The primary one was the one that also produced the tornado in Louisville (again more in a moment).  It moved parallel to US 60 from Louisville to Frankfort causing sporadic damage along the way (don’t be surprised if the blue dot along the Shelby/Oldham county line becomes red tomorrow after a survey is done).  At Frankfort US 60 turns south, but the storm cell didn’t running basically parallel to US 460 all the way to Prestonsburg producing occasional damage all along the way…pretty cool meteorologically when you can actually see it.

You can also see the linear feature that ran from the yellow dot near Campbellsville all the way past Jackson…a weaker cell within the line…again pretty cool when it’s plotted out.

Now for the tornado…It was an EF1 near St Mathews in Louisville.  Everybody seems to be amazed that we had a tornado in January.  It’s really not all that unusual with our most infamous one (at least as a TV station) back in 2006…that was the day Louisville was in a New Year’s bowl game (Orange?) and we had tornadoes in the southwestern part of the area that we had to cover.  There were 6 that day in Kentucky including in McKinney in Lincoln County.

Since 1950 there have been 15 days in January that have had tornadoes across Kentucky…that makes it a once every 4 years  average…There has been an uptick in these the last 15 years, but January tornadoes can and do happen in Kentucky.  Ironically on the day your friendly neighborhood weatherguy entered this world there were 4 tornadoes across the Commonwealth…a fun fact to know and tell.

We do have another cold snap to contend with…but our temperatures are only going about 5 below normal (not that big a deal).  It’s going to last a couple of days and then we’re poised for a big time warm up late in the weekend and especially next week.  It too may end loudly, but we’ll talk about that later.

There’s still nothing over the next week and a half to indicate any kind of sustained cold…which gets us almost to February…the last month of meteorological winter.

The sun will increase tomorrow, so enjoy that with the chill in the air…and have a terrific day.